Can Sporting KC (Mathematically) Make the Playoffs in 2026?

I know what you are all thinking. Why even look into this? Sporting Kansas City are having one of the worst seasons in the history of Major League Soccer. They are on pace to allow more goals than any team ever and finish with a worse goal differential than any team ever. They are dead last in the standings!

What is maddening, is they are absolutely still alive for the 2026 MLS Cup Playoffs. And if MLS implements their new plan, allowing 20 teams in, they’d be even more in the running.

With 13 games to go, Sporting KC are sitting on a paltry 15 points. That’s 15 points through 21 games played, or 0.71 points per game.

Right now, they are 13 points behind the ninth place Portland Timbers for the last play-in game.

If Sporting KC were to win all their games (stop laughing), they could finish with 54 points. For reference, Supporters Shield leading Nashville SC already have 49 points through 21 games. The gulf is massive!

Back to SKC. 54 points would be enough to get a team into the playoffs. So, technically, they are alive. But considering they are 1-5-1 since the World Cup break, it’s clear that isn’t going to happen. That doesn’t even factor in Manu Garcia already departing and Dejan Joveljic’s impending departure.

Andre Luiz is expected in Kansas City today, but he alone cannot fix this mess. David Lee has to get a bunch of work done in the coming nine days before the transfer window closes and even those players won’t arrive quick enough to make an immediate difference.

What Does it Take to Really Make the Playoffs?

This is a reoccurring theme for Sporting KC. Start bad and try to make a run. In 2023, they actually pulled it off and famously went on to upset first place St. Louis City SC in the first round of the playoffs. In 2024 and 2025, they fell way short. Not to mention they missed in 2022 as well. 2021 is the last time this team was truly good, when they finished third in the Western Conference. It feels like forever ago.

What will it take to actually get in this time? It’s hard to know, but we can look at the past data.

• 2025: 53 East | 41 West
• 2024: 40 East | 47 West
• 2023: 43 East | 44 West
• 2022: 42 East | 43 West
• 2021: 47 East | 45 West

Those 2025 numbers are real outliers. If we stick to the averages before that, you are looking at about 44 points to make the playoffs, give or take.

Sporting KC would need to earn 29 points in the next 13 games. That’s a 2.23 point per game pace. A near impossible number for this squad.

Going into this story, you may have thought it was impossible. While it’s not technically, it basically is. The priority should be to attack the next nine days of the transfer window with an eye to the future. No desperate moves. Get player that fit and try to start putting things together for that 2027 Sprint Season.

The Next Nine Days in the Transfer Market are Critical for Sporting KC

Also, start assessing who should still be here after the season. Players, coaches, all of it. Plenty of players are out of contract and even with the mess he inherited, Rapha Wicky is probably coaching for his job.

Next up, we’ll look at who is out of contract after the season.