What Does Sporting KC Need to do to Make the Playoffs?

When Sporting Kansas City made the decision to move on from Peter Vermes this season, it made waves around the league. The longest active tenured coach in MLS history, by a pretty long margin, was suddenly gone. The team was on a run of 13 games, spread across two seasons, without a win.

The change brought an immediately shift. Interim coach Kerry Zavagnin burst on the scene winning three of his first five games at the helm.

But then came another lull. Not as bad as the one that showed PV the door, but the hopes that Sporting KC would make the playoffs took a big hit. In the 13 games since that third win, the team is 3-5-5.

Sporting KC are currently on a three-game winless streak with first place San Diego FC coming to town for the first time in the club’s history. And it doesn’t exactly get easier after SD. That visit is followed by trips to Orlando City (6th-East) and the Seattle Sounders (4th-West). Even the following two games against the Colorado Rapids and Austin FC are against teams currently above the red playoff line.

Sporting KC don’t get a game against a non-playoff team until September 13th against Real Salt Lake. That’s five weeks and five games away. Of the team’s remaining 10 matches, only three teams (RSL, LA Galaxy and Houston Dynamo) are below the playoff line.

Things feel bleak. But what does the math say? Can Sporting KC make the playoffs?

Playoff Math: How Many Points Do They Need?

Of course, SKC control their destiny. If they win a ton of games, they’ll easily make the playoffs. The problem is they’ve only won six games in 24 tries. So, what point total is the actual goal?

In MLS, the playoff line is always a moving target. 18 teams currently make the playoffs in MLS. A playoff system that only has two years of data to look at. Last year, 9th in the Western Conference took 47 points (Portland Timbers), compared to just 40 (Atlanta United) in the Eastern Conference. In 2023 it was 44 in the West (San Jose Earthquakes) and 43 in the East (Charlotte FC).

If we expand back to 2021 (let’s not think about that COVID year in 2020), the numbers remain similar:

• 2024: 40 East | 47 West
• 2023: 43 East | 44 West
• 2022: 42 East | 43 West
• 2021: 47 East | 45 West

Averaging that incredibly small dataset puts us at 43.875 points, so we’ll round up to 44.

Where do Things Stand Now?

The Colorado Rapids, who Sporting KC host on August 30th, are sitting on 30 points with nine games remaining. Sporting KC have a game in hand and are at 24 points, with three teams ahead of them (SJ 29, Houston 27, Dallas 25) also trying to make the playoff push.

With Sporting KC only six points out of the playoff race, it’s far from over. Which is more than can be said for their rival to the East, St. Louis City SC, who sit 12 points out.

But to get to the estimated 44-point total, Sporting KC are going to need to do a lot of winning. That’s six wins and two draws.

That feels unlikely. But maybe the point total will be lower. The Eastern Conference is really beating up on the West this year. Their 9th place team is the Chicago Fire, who are a full five points better than Colorado.

Maybe KC get lucky and only need 40 or 41 points. That’s still a 16 to 17-point gap. Five wins and a draw or two? That’s nearly doubling their win total over the first 24 games. And against stiffer competition.

What Should Sporting KC Do?

Honestly, they should build for 2026. Figure out how many of the 18 guys (adding in the recent Alan Montes loan) they can potentially move on from, that they should actually try to keep around.

They are certainly done with a lot of guys. It’s probably time to move a bunch of them to the bench and try out guys that they may want to keep or are for sure going to be here.

Are they going to re-sign Robert Voloder or Logan Ndenbe? Is Ian James ready to take a starting role? The aforementioned Montes is on loan; they have to figure out if his option is worth picking up. Same for Santi Munoz.

The list goes on and on.

Then again, Zavagnin is still the interim coach. He’d like to make that move permanent, so he’ll certainly put out the best 11 guys that are going to help him keep his job. It’s hard to blame him for that, even if it may not be in the best interest of the team for 2026 and beyond.