MLS xG-Elo Power Rankings: A 2026 Reset and a Pulse for Sporting KC

Welcome back to the weekly breakdown of Elo ratings and power rankings and such.

We’re doing something a little different this week. We are now far enough into the season that the chaos of the early weeks has settled. As a result, we probably have enough data to take a look at what happens when we drop the historical baggage. From this point forward (until I change my mind), the model is calculating performance based on the 2026 season. Everyone started fresh at 1500 on Opening Day, and now we are getting some insight into who is who this year.

Let’s dive into a wild weekend of results.

Orlando’s Miracle and Miami’s Stumble

The biggest story of the weekend didn’t happen at the top of the table; it happened in Florida, where Orlando City pulled off a historic 4-3 comeback victory over Inter Miami after trailing by three goals.

We all love a comeback like that, and when you defeat a mathematically superior opponent while generating the expected goals to support it, the Elo swing is massive. Orlando was rewarded with a league-best +16.4 point jump, rocketing them up three spots.

Conversely, Inter Miami paid a price for the collapse. They took a -16.4 point hit, which was enough to knock them completely out of the Top 5, dropping them to #6 (1533.7).

Gridlock at the Top

With Miami falling out of the elite tier, you would expect the rest of the top teams to pull away. Instead, they all hit a wall.

The entire Top 4, San Jose (#1), Vancouver (#2), Nashville (#3), and Seattle (#4), all dropped points this weekend with draws. Because they are the highest-rated teams in the league, the Elo system expects them to win most of their matches. Earning a draw against inferior teams costs them rating points.

The main beneficiary of this gridlock? Minnesota United. The Loons jumped up three spots to take Miami’s place at #5 (1535.7), grabbing +10.6 points and proving they belong in the conversation.

Sporting KC: Stopping the Bleeding

Now let’s turn to Sporting Kansas City. The math has been brutal for SKC over the last month, but this week, they finally stopped the freefall.

Still stuck at the bottom of our ratings, SKC managed to grind out a home draw against a very tough Seattle side. Because Seattle is rated over 100 points higher, holding them to a draw was viewed as an upset, rewarding SKC with +4.3 points.

Is a 1430.0 rating still a basement abyss? Yes. But for the first time in five weeks, their form line doesn’t end in an “L.” It’s a small pulse, but it’s a pulse nonetheless.

Around the League

• Capital Gains: D.C. United continues to quietly climb, jumping six spots to #14 after a +15.6 point weekend.
• NYCFC’s Slide: New York City FC absorbed the second-worst hit of the week, dropping -15.6 points and tumbling four spots down to #22.
• Cincinnati Rises: FC Cincinnati is making a push for the upper-middle class, jumping four spots to #12 with a strong +12.6 point performance.

Here’s the full table as it stands today.

Parting Thought: The shift to 2026-only data shows one thing: the margin for error is incredibly thin this season. An exciting multi-goal game or gritty draw can impart a side with much-needed momentum. And we all know how much Kansas City needs to start building momentum.

Want to see how your team is trending or check the full historical data? You can dive deeper into the numbers by heading over to https://jough13.github.io/xG_Elo/