MLS xG-Elo Ratings: Sporting KC Stranded While Vancouver Hunts Miami

Sporting KC: Alone in the Dark

There is a strange quirk built into the mathematics of an Elo system: once you fall far enough below the rest of the league, the engine stops punishing you so severely for losing.

This week, Sporting Kansas City lost again, bringing their form to a dismal LLLLL, yet their rating only dropped by -6.7 points. Why? Because the model expects them to get blown out by almost everyone. When a team drops to 1351.5, an impending loss is already factored into the win probability. A minimal point drop isn’t a sign of resilience; it’s a symptom of a team that the algorithm views as an underdog in every single matchup.

Last week, we talked about SKC having “friends in low places.” This week, those friends abandoned them. Montreal, Atlanta United, and D.C. United all picked up wins. Consequently, the gap between #29 Atlanta (1398.4) and #30 Sporting KC (1351.5) has ballooned to 46.9 points.

SKC is no longer just in last place. They are isolated in an abyss of their own making.

The Basement Breakout

The reason SKC is suddenly so isolated is that the teams directly above them pulled off some impressive performances.

• Montreal’s Masterclass: CF Montreal continues their ascent. For the second week in a row, they pulled off an upset, this time taking down NYCFC. The result triggered a +16.5 point swing for Montreal (the biggest jump of the week), while NYCFC took a -16.5 point hit, dropping out of the Top 10.
• Atlanta United Wakes Up: Right on Montreal’s heels is Atlanta United. Desperately needing a result, they went on the road and defeated Toronto FC, netting a +16.2 point boost.
• D.C. United Survives: D.C. United also grabbed a result, adding +13.7 points to their tally and moving up to #28.

Here’s how the full table is currently looking:

Around the League

• Razor-Thin Margin at the Top: Inter Miami (1620.5) retained their #1 ranking, but they dropped points with a draw (-6.9). Meanwhile, Vancouver (1619.5) continued their march with another win (+6.4). The gap between the two best teams in MLS is now exactly 1.0 point.
• San Jose’s Breakaway: The Earthquakes are on a roll right now. They moved up another spot to #6 (1568.5) and boast a WWWWW form line. They might be the hottest team in the league, consistently backing up their wins with dominant chance creation.
• San Diego’s Freefall: While SKC has a monopoly on the bottom spot, San Diego FC is doing a good impression of them. They’ve now lost five in a row (LLLLL) and dropped to #13 after a -14.4 point weekend.

Parting Thought: When your rating drops so low that the math assumes you will lose every match, getting back to average feels like climbing Mount Everest. SKC needs to turn things around immediately. Until then, the rest of the league is leaving them behind.

Want to see how other teams are trending or check the full historical data? You can dive deeper into the numbers by heading over to https://jough13.github.io/xG_Elo/