The xG-Elo Report: Montreal Jumps While Sporting KC Hits Historic Lows

The xG-Elo Report: Montreal Jumps While Sporting KC Hits Historic Lows

Welcome back to our (mostly) weekly breakdown of my hybrid xG-Elo standings. The latest update paints a grim portrait of divergence, contrasting New England’s resurgence with a Sporting KC side currently plumbing depths previously unknown to the franchise.

Sporting KC: A Historic Floor

There is no way (or need) to sugarcoat it. Sporting Kansas City is awful, currently sitting dead last at #30 with an Elo rating of 1358.2.

If there is a silver lining, it’s that the engine only docked the team 5.6 points for their recent loss. Because Vancouver is a top-tier team in the league (1613.1), the model heavily expected a loss, and SKC wasn’t punished severely for failing to pull off an upset.

However, the big picture is dreadful. Historically, the club’s baseline has never eroded to this point. Even with the managerial shake-up and acquisition of an almost entirely new roster, the team has yet to find a pulse. Four straight losses (five if we count the USOC match, which I don’t want to talk about) reflects a team consistently failing to compete. Math might have spared them a massive single-week plunge against the Whitecaps, but the long-term prognosis is grim.

A New England Revival

If Sporting KC fans want to know what an escape from the basement looks like, they need only look at the New England Revolution.

The Revs aren’t the primary beneficiaries of this week’s math, but they are arguably the most improved team over the last month. With a +13.9 point gain this week, they’ve climbed to #25 (1448.3). More importantly, they have now won three matches in a row and four of their last five.

This is the template SKC needs to emulate. The Revs may not have completely transformed, but they’ve certainly stopped the bleeding. Their WLWWW form has essentially “de-risked” their season. While SKC continues to dig, New England has put the shovel down and started climbing.

Friends in Low Places

Sporting KC isn’t the only traditional power struggling to stay afloat. A look at the bottom of the league table reveals some surprising names keeping us company in the depths.

• Atlanta United: Sitting just one spot in the Elo rankings above SKC, Atlanta continues to spiral. Their WDLLL form and a -6.8 point drop this week show a team that has lost its way. At 1389.6, they are the only other club currently languishing in the 1300s.
• Orlando City: While higher in the rankings, Orlando suffered a -13.5 point hit this week and are mired at the bottom of the standings. They are rapidly losing their “middle-class” status.
• Philadelphia Union: The Union are the “richest” of this group at 1500.6, but are effectively a team at a standstill. They’ve stopped the string of losses and now sit right at the league’s 1500 baseline, having lost the “fear factor” that made them a contender in recent years.

Here’s what the full table looks like currently:

Notes From Around the League

• The Top Three: Inter Miami (1618.5) maintains a narrow grip on the #1 overall spot after picking up 7.0 points. Vancouver (#2) and Seattle (#3) are right behind them, with the Sounders gaining steam.
• LAFC‘s Stumble: LAFC took a -16.3 point hit this week, dropping out of the top three to land at #4.
• Montreal’s Shocker: Look at CF Montreal! They provided the shock of the week by upsetting the Red Bulls, triggering a +17.3 point swing—the single largest leap in the league. It moves them up to #27, giving them a lifeline out of the basement.
• San Jose’s Quiet Climb: The Earthquakes continue to be fascinating. They gathered +16.3 points this week, leaping up three spots into the Top 10 (#9 overall at 1550.4). Winning four of their last five, they are backing up their results with dominant chance creation.
• Stuck in the Middle: The middle of the pack remains incredibly volatile. Only 28 points separate #12 FC Cincinnati (1525.7) and #16 Columbus Crew (1497.0). In a tier this congested, a single multi-goal win with a strong xG performance can make all the difference.

Parting Thought: To stop the freefall, Sporting KC doesn’t need to be perfect. They just need to string together a few gritty results. They need to be New England. Until then, the abyss only gets deeper.

Want to see how other teams are trending or check the full historical data? You can dive deeper into some of the numbers by heading over to https://jough13.github.io/xG_Elo/