Match Preview: High-Flying Orlando City Host Sputtering Sporting KC

Sporting Kansas City faces yet another tough test on the road against Orlando City SC in a cross-conference matchup this Saturday, August 16^th. The stakes are high for both clubs, but for totally different reasons. Sporting KC is trying to salvage what remains of another difficult campaign and find some positive momentum again after a string of rough results, while a confident Orlando City side looks to tighten its grip as an Eastern Conference contender and snag every possible point for playoff positioning.

This game throws together a team struggling for results against one of the league’s most in-form clubs. For Orlando, it’s a chance to prove their championship cred to their home fans. For Sporting KC, it’s an opportunity to redisplay some of their earlier resilience and secure a huge upset on the road, delivering a bright spot to fans who are once again feeling the frustration of a mediocre season.

Orlando City: The Eastern Conference Elite

Orlando City’s season has been one of impressive results and an upward trajectory. The team is in excellent form, highlighted by their recent 4-1 rout of rivals Inter Miami, a win demonstrated their quality and surging confidence under manager Óscar Pareja.

They host this match sitting in fourth place in the Eastern Conference with a record of 12 wins, 8 draws, and 6 losses (44 points). Offensively, they have been prolific, having scored in 19 consecutive matches across all competitions.

One of the more interesting factors in this season’s success has been their performance on their travels. Curiously, they have earned more points on the road (23) than they have at home (21) in Inter&Co Stadium. While their home record is strong, their ability to get results anywhere makes them an incredibly tough nut to crack. They’re a strong team with a tactical system that is effective wherever they are.

Sporting KC: A Season of Transition

While Orlando has a clear team identity, Sporting KC is a squad adrift and still searching for a north star. After some quick positives and glimmers of hope under interim coach Kerry Zavagnin, the team has started to back-slide again, with the task of finding a new direction still half-finished at best.

These struggles have been clearly demonstrated by recent results. Sporting KC is currently sitting in 13th place in the Western Conference with a record of 6 wins, 6 draws, and 13 losses. They’re on a poor run of form, having lost their last two games to Vancouver (3-0) and San Diego (2-0), and their away form has been a major issue. With just three wins, two draws, and seven losses on the road, they have struggled to find any kind of success away from Children’s Mercy Park.

The Analytics: A Deeper Look at the Numbers

The standings show that Orlando is obviously having a much better season, but we can also take a quick glance at both teams expected goals (xG) to perhaps provide some insight into why each team has fared the way they’ve fared.

Orlando’s xG all but confirms their status as an upper-echelon team. Scoring 50 goals from an xG of 45.8, they create a high volume of quality chances and finish them efficiently. Their xGD of +12.4 is one of the best in MLS and shows that they generally outperform their opponents in chance creation and conversion.

Sporting KC’s numbers, in contrast, highlight some real problems. Their xGA of 49.2 shows they’re conceding an alarming number of quality chances to their foes, while their xGD of −20.0 is among the worst in the league. Perhaps notably, they’ve scored 36 goals despite creating only 29.2 xG. This overperformance hints that their scoring has relied on clinical finishing (aka Dejan Joveljic) and low-probability shots (high risk, high reward, if you’re an optimist), which sounds both great and exciting in theory, but isn’t a sustainable way to run an offense in practice.

Orlando’s System

Orlando arrives with a well-defined game plan. Coach Óscar Pareja has come to employ what is essentially an asymmetrical 4-2-3-1, providing both offensive firepower and defensive stability.

While in possession, one of Orlando’s fullbacks will push high up the field to join the attack. At the same time, the other fullback will shift centrally to form a temporary back-three with the center-backs. This creates an overload on one side of the field while making sure they’re not vulnerable to counterattacks. It’s a modern and intelligent system that the players execute well, somewhat reminiscent of how Peter Vermes would employ the SKC fullbacks in a 4-3-3 that became a 3-4-3 in attack.

Sporting KC’s Search for a Formula

Sporting KC’s tactics have been in an ongoing state of flux and adjustment. The club’s traditional 4-3-3 formation has been largely set aside as interim coach Kerry Zavagnin experiments to find a solution to the team’s struggles. He has used a 4-2-3-1 and has made significant in-game changes, showing a willingness to mix things up on the fly. Zavagnin recently quipped the team had used its “24th starting lineup in 25 games,” a bit of a joke, perhaps, but one that highlights their lack of tactical continuity as the search for a perfect, or even decent recipe continues.

Key Matchups

Here’s what I’m going to be watching for:

Dejan Joveljić vs. Robin Jansson: This matchup has SKC’s most effective attacker against Orlando’s defensive stalwart. Joveljić has been a bright spot for Sporting with 13 goals; his great ability to score even with limited service has been most welcome. He will be facing off against Orlando’s captain, Robin Jansson, a physical and positionally minded center-back responsible for organizing the back line.

SKC’s Left Flank vs. Marco Pašalić: This is a potential problem area for the visiting side. SKC will have to figure out who to run out against and how to mark one of Orlando’s most dangerous players. Designated Player Marco Pašalić, with five goals and 13 assists thus far this season, is a pacy and dynamic winger who will want to exploit any weakness he can find on his side of the field.

Nemanja Radoja vs. Martín Ojeda: The grind in the midfield is always fun to watch unfold. Orlando’s attack flows through Martín Ojeda, a marquee attacking midfielder with 14 goals and eight assists. He will be lined up against Nemanja Radoja, SKC’s veteran defensive midfielder. Radoja’s most important job is to protect the back line and throw off the rhythm of the attack. If he can limit Ojeda’s space and influence, it would seriously help SKC’s defensive efforts. And as of late, they need all the help they can muster.

Four Things to Watch For

SKC’s In-Game Adjustments. Pay attention to how Sporting KC lines up and if Kerry Zavagnin makes a major tactical change (or three) during the game, such as shifting to a five-man defense if Orlando dominates possession early.

The Home Crowd’s Impact. Since Orlando City has joined MLS, Inter&Co has become a notorious place for visiting teams, and Orlando will be buoyed by their home support. Early energy from the fans could provide a boost for the home side and put Sporting KC on the back foot right away. While Sporting has had some success coming from behind this season, if they can weather the initial storm and quiet the crowd, it would help turn the tide.

Set-Piece Opportunities. Watch for dead-ball situations, as Orlando City has proven to be one of the league’s most effective teams in this area. With 10 goals scored from set pieces (excluding penalty kicks) this season, they are tied for fourth-most in MLS. For a Sporting KC team that has struggled defensively, keeping their discipline and avoiding silly fouls in their own third will be priority number one. Orlando has the players and the schemes to punish any lapse in focus on corners and free kicks.

Yellow Card Accumulation. Several players in this one are close to suspension. For SKC, three players are one yellow card away from serving a one-game suspension: midfielders Zorhan Bassong, Jake Davis and Manu Garcia. For Orlando, midfielder Cesar Araujo will be serving a one game suspension, and Robin Jansson will need to be careful as his next caution will result in a suspension as well.

Final Analysis and Prediction

While MLS is a league that loves upsets, most signs point in Orlando City’s favor.

Their quality, depth, and form all present a tough challenge for a Sporting KC team that is struggling defensively. While Dejan Joveljić is a threat to score in each and every game, Orlando is an offensive powerhouse adept at containing threats. They excel at generating high-quality chances, the kind of chances Kansas City all too often gives up easily. Over 90 minutes, Orlando’s multi-pronged and explosive attack should be more than able to take advantage of the woes that SKC has yet to fully mitigate.

Predicted Score: Orlando City 3 – 1 Sporting KC

What say you? Let us know in the comment section down below!