Match Preview: NC Courage at KC Current

When we write articles for something like a sports event, especially when we write a preview-type piece, the match is often not going to exactly follow our script. We may highlight a specific player who ends up being ineffective or focus on an element of the game that proceeds not to matter. However, sometimes we do get it right.

Last week, in our preview of the Current match against the Reign, we focused on the issue Kansas City has had on finishing their chances this season. They entered that game well underwater as far as actual goals scored compared to expected goals (xG). And then the game resulted in these final stats according to ESPN:

• Possession: KC 55% – SEA 45%
• Expected Goals (xG): KC 3.31 – SEA 0.66
• Total Shots: KC 24 – SEA 8
• Shots on Target: KC 3 – SEA 4
• Big Chances Created: KC 4 – SEA 0
• Corners: KC 6 – SEA 3
• Accurate Passes: KC 290 (75%) – SEA 213 (68%)
• Duels Won: KC 55 – SEA 53
• Fouls: KC 13 – SEA 13

Anyone just glancing at those statistics would assume KC won, and likely won handily: 3.31 vs. 0.66 xG? Four big chances created compared to zero? Twenty-four total shots versus eight? But of course, that match ended in a 1-1 draw, a draw that required Kansas City to overcome a deficit and in which they only scored thanks to VAR suggesting a PK.

Admittedly, the Current did suffer a little bad luck in the match. The one stat that would seem to favor Seattle, shots on target, is a little misleading because that doesn’t factor in the three times the Current rattled the woodwork. If even one of those shots is an inch or two different, the Current walk away with the full three points.

But, of course, they didn’t get the win. And they didn’t get the win in the most “Current” way possible–continuing a season-long pattern of underperforming in predictable ways. On the one hand, Seattle scored off a corner kick (and an own goal). The Current lead the league in goals allowed from set pieces. And on the other hand, despite creating a multitude of chances, Kansas City could only find the back of the net when Debinha stepped to the spot.

We’re highlighting last week’s preview piece not to pat ourselves on the back for accurately anticipating how the game would play out, but to point out the patterns the Current have created that are holding them back from having more success this season. If they had conceded just the league average from set pieces, they’d have won more games. If they weren’t a full 10+ actual goals scored less than expected goals scored, they would have won more games. If the hope is still to have success this season, Kansas City will need to improve in these areas.

There is, certainly, one element we haven’t yet mentioned here that should help things for the Current: Temwa Chawinga. Because of injury (early in the season) and international duty (most recently), Chawinga has only played in 11 of KC’s 21 matches. Over the full season, the Current have won nine times–including seven times when Chawinga has played. In other words, KC has a 64% winning percentage when Chawinga plays and a 20% winning percentage when she doesn’t. She’s the 2x league MVP for a reason.

While the timeline has not been officially confirmed, Chawinga should be coming back from her post-WAFCON break soon. It would have been great if the Current could have really figured out how to win even without her in the lineup, but they will undoubtedly get a boost upon her return. Briefly comparing this to another local team, a lot less would be expected of the Chiefs if (Current co-owner) Patrick Mahomes wasn’t available to play. It’s no surprise that MVPs are important to a team’s success.

To take this discussion one step farther, as much as Vlatko Andonovski has been rightfully lauded for guiding the Current to two successful regular seasons, he and the team really fell flat at the end of last season when, not coincidentally, Chawinga picked up her injury. Perhaps, regardless of the manager, as Chawinga goes, so goes the Current.

Anyway, the Teal are back in action at home this Saturday afternoon. In a game that very neatly parallels the one a week ago, they are hosting a team near to them in the table. KC will also, once again, come in as the more rested team. The Courage welcomed Angel City to NC on Wednesday, a game they won 2-0, before they traveled west for the match in KC. These two teams have met once before in 2026 with the Current actually earning a rare road win; 2-1 back in early May.

One Courage player to keep an eye on is Ashley Sanchez who is having the very definition of a career year. After tallying both of North Carolina’s goals in their midweek game, she now sits on 15 for the season, a full three ahead of Banda in the Golden Boot race. Of course, if Chawinga does return this weekend, the matchup of Temwa vs. Ashley could prove to be an interesting subplot. Sanchez has scored 15 in 21 matches while Chawinga has scored 9 in 11 matches. If the Malawi international keeps up her current pace through the rest of the season, she could end up challenging for a third-straight Golden Boot.

Counting this weekend’s match, Kansas City has nine regular season games left. As stated, they currently are occupying the penultimate playoff spot, with Seattle nipping at their heels. First place (and the Shield) is likely out of reach, but if the Current are able to improve in a couple of the areas we’ve mentioned, there’s no reason they can’t finish the regular season strong. They still could earn one (or more) home playoff games and, with a fully healthy and available Chawinga, right some of the wrongs from the end of last season.

But that has to start now. They have one win, four ties, and three losses over their last eight outings. While they still haven’t lost at CPKC Stadium this season, they also haven’t won there since July. Again, that has to change this weekend, with the team just ahead of them in the standings coming to town.

WHEN: Saturday, August 29 at 5:30 PM (Central Time)

WHERE: CPKC Stadium, Kansas City, MO

HOW TO WATCH: ion / 38 the Spot

Record:

KC Current: 9-4-8 (31 points, 7th place)

North Carolina Courage: 11-3-7 (36 points, 5th place)

Last Match:

KC Current: 1-1 home draw versus Seattle Reign

North Carolina Courage: 2-0 home win versus Angel City