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Playoff Math: It’s all but Over for Sporting Kansas City

Can Sporting KC make the playoffs? Technically, yes. But they are going to need a ton of help and a complete reversal of fortunes.

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Credit: Thad Bell

On Sunday night, Sporting Kansas City took an early lead against Austin FC as they looked to keep their slim playoff hopes alive. As the game wore on, it all started to fall apart. In the end, it went from Sporting KC having a shot at three points, to walking away with no points and tying a club record for home losses in a season.

The loss to Austin leaves Sporting KC’s playoff hopes on life support. When we asked Erik Thommy, who returned for the first time in over two months last night, about it in the postgame, he knew the situation was dire.

“We’re still in the race,” began Thommy. “Now, it’s obviously hard for us. We see the table. We know what to do. Not a lot of games left but everybody needs to believe. Believe… We need a small miracle to reach the playoffs.”

A small miracle may be underselling it a bit. But what else is he supposed to say?

Sporting KC currently sit at 13th in the Western Conference standings. They are on 27 points through 29 games, which is eight points behind the 9th place San Jose Earthquakes. If they could climb to ninth, they’d get a play-in game against the 8th place team for the privilege of playing the one seed (currently San Diego FC).

Technically, Sporting KC could win all their games and earn 15 more points, moving their total to 42. When we looked at what it would take to make the playoffs last month, 44 was the number we laned on. The lowest point total to make the Western Conference playoffs in the last four seasons is 43 points, but in the east, it’s been as low as 40 (last year).

It’s not officially over. But it basically is.

And fan attention feels like it’s at an all-time low in the Sporting KC era.

That may leave you wondering, what reason is there to pay attention? The main thing that comes to mind are the 17 players who are either out of contract, on options years or on loan with a purchase option. Decisions have to be made on those 17 guys.

Sporting KC Has Just One Priority on the Field Going Forward

We asked Thommy, who is out of contract, if he or his agent have triggered negotiations, but he wanted to focus on the present.

“It’s not about me. I think we have 16 or 17 players who are running out of contract… I’m here. I’m here to be successful with the team. There [are] some steps to go. After that, we can talk about my contract and maybe the contract of other players.”

Even if Thommy, or others, don’t want to talk about it. That’s essentially all we have to focus on. That, and staying ahead of St. Louis City SC in the standings.

Since 2014, Chad Smith has been deeply involved in covering Kansas City soccer. He's written about Sporting KC, the KC Current and SKC II for numerous platforms, including The Blue Testament, which was the precursor to the KC Soccer Journal. While his initial connection to Sporting KC was established in Phoenix covering preseason, he now resides in the Kansas City area, offering thorough analysis and a strong commitment to local soccer.

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Kcwookie

It’s over. It’s time to get over it. It’s been over since April or May. This season has been a gigantic tryout to see who needs to be here next year. I see a couple of standouts, no-brainers. The rest, I wish good luck. I hope that most of the club options are not exercised. How many people are here because it’s a contract and a paycheck? I don’t doubt anybody is here that doesn’t want the team to succeed, but are they the right person to make the team succeed?

I believe the first order of business is to settle the issue on who is going to be the manager. I want to know whose vision we the fans are supposed to lineup behind. I’m happy giving KZ more time. I just wish you would dress on the sideline like he was important rather than this was a stop on his way to the pub. To do the part, I think he needs to look the part.

when I watch the match last night, I saw 11 individuals doing their best. I didn’t see a whole lot of team, a whole lot of us. People weren’t where they were supposed to be, and in the end we got punished. To be successful, we need 20 or 25 individuals who can come together so tight they can almost finish each other’s sentences. People who don’t have to practice where they should be, people who know where they should be. We have a couple that I figure that out, but we need a lot more as I said. On the whole side, I see two absolute keepers end a couple, three more potentials,

Shawn

I just saw on the Sporting KC subreddit that Andrew Weibe (from his X/twitter)reported that Sporting is getting close to a CSO, if this is true. How are you guys feeling about it?

Shawn

Ok Awesome. I appreciate the pod. Thanks for being great!

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