MLS Power Rankings: We’re Back!

Welcome back to our (often) weekly breakdown of expected goals and power rankings.

The World Cup has officially wrapped up, and the MLS regular season is back in action. Week one delivered some jaw-dropping results and ranking shifts.

Let’s dive into the post-pause fallout.

Seattle’s Freefall

The headline of the week belongs to the Pacific Northwest, where a massive rivalry clash produced the ranking swing of the week.

The Seattle Sounders suffered a huge loss over the weekend, bleeding 20.0 points and sliding down five spots to #12 (1511.1). Their recent form has gone completely cold (DWLLL), hinting at underlying issues that they failed to fix over the break.

The beneficiary of the swing? Their hated rivals, the Portland Timbers. Portland walked away with that point inheritance, sending them rocketing up four spots to #20. When you pull off a rivalry win while backing it up with a dominant offensive display, the model nods in approval and hands out rewards.

Up at the top, Nashville eked out a one-goal win against lowly Atlanta to retain the crown (+2.8), while the Vancouver Whitecaps put together a solid performance (+11.8) to leapfrog Inter Miami (+4.8) for the #2 spot. The San Jose Earthquakes managed to cling to fourth place with a timely win (+6.5), and rounding out the top five, FC Dallas jumped into the #5 spot with a +10.1-point performance (WWDWW).

Sporting KC Stumbles, But Stays Out of the Basement

Look away, Kansas City fans.

After two weeks of positive results before the break, Sporting Kansas City had to digest a tough -9.0-point hit over the weekend following a frustrating loss that threw off their momentum (LWWLL).

Normally, a drop like that at the bottom of the table is a ticket back to the cellar. But SKC got a helping hand from the math gods this week. Because the Philadelphia Union also lost to the tune of -4.8 Elo points, SKC will stay in 29th place, maintaining a razor-thin 0.7-point cushion over the #30 Union (1431.8).

It wasn’t a pretty weekend for Kansas City, staying out of last place only by the skin of their teeth.

Around the League

• LAFC Back in the Hunt: Los Angeles FC quieted recent doubts by climbing four spots back toward the top, landing at #7 on the back of an excellent +14.1-point performance.
• Charlotte’s Rocket: Charlotte FC continues its impressive upward trajectory, jumping five spots to land at #15 with a rock-solid +12.9 Elo point infusion.
• Galaxy Sliding: The post-break blues hit the LA Galaxy hard, as they absorbed a -14.1-point hit and tumbled three spots down to #16.

Here’s the full table as it stands heading into the late-July stretch.

Parting Thought: Coming off a long break, we may have caught a glimpse of which clubs stayed sharp and which ones rusted out over the layover. Portland gets to ride a wave of Cascadia momentum into late July, while Seattle must figure out what’s started to go wrong before their season spirals out of control. For SKC, the reality of their season is thus: momentum is hard to build and easy to lose. Right now, they have slid back down to the base of the mountain and are avoiding the Wooden Spoon only by the thinnest of margins.

If you want to play with a more interactive version and see how teams have trended since the start of the season, you can check out the full version of the model at my website here!