Midweek Ratings: Updated Elo Rankings and How Far SKC Has Fallen

The latest run of our Hybrid xG-Elo model shows what happens when teams start stringing together results, and what happens when they fail to live up to their historical form.

The View from KC: Sinking Deeper

It brings us no joy to report this, but math is unforgiving. Sporting Kansas City remains firmly cemented at the bottom of the league rankings (30th overall) with a 1370.4 rating, taking another heavy hit this week by shedding 8.4 Elo points following their latest loss. Their recent form (DLWLL) paints a picture of a team that cannot find a rhythm. And because this model carries over historical data, SKC didn’t wipe the slate clean after a dismal 2025. To climb out of this hole, they must start stringing together genuinely dominant performances. Instead, losing matches where they desperately need points is only digging the hole deeper. Until Sporting starts consistently turning in solid performances, they will remain looking up at the rest of the league.

San Jose is the Mover of the Week

Don’t look now, but the San Jose Earthquakes are on a roll. They are the official Mover of the Week, jumping up two spots to 11th overall with a staggering +18.4 Elo gain. For a team to swing nearly 20 points in a single update means they aren’t just winning matches—they are also dominating the underlying xG battle against though opponents. With a hot WWLWW form line, the Earthquakes are suddenly a problem for the rest of the league (and for SKC on Saturday).

San Diego Hits a Wall

On the flip side, the biggest statistical loser of the week was San Diego. Despite holding onto the #5 overall spot, they bled a massive 18.4 Elo points. Their recent form (WWDDL) suggests the engine is punishing them for dropping points in matches where the mathematical expectations favored them heavily.

The Philly Freefall Continues

Last week, we talked about how the Philadelphia Union were plummeting in the MLS standings but were being kept afloat in our rankings by a massive historical safety net. That net is snapping. Philly has now lost six straight matches (LLLLLL), bleeding another 7.8 Elo points to drop to 15th overall. The model no longer views them as a sleeping giant; it views them as a team in freefall.

Here are the complete, updated Hybrid xG-Elo Power Rankings!

Want to dig deeper into the data?

Click here to explore the fully interactive Hybrid xG-Elo Dashboard. You can click on Sporting KC (or any other team) to view their match history, expected goals breakdown, and track their Elo rating progression chart!