U.S. in must win v Australia in 2nd match of FIFA World Cup 2026

Copa America (South America’s biggest international tournament), 2022: The United States Men’s National Team defeated Bolivia 2-0 in the first match of the group stage. Then, disaster. A 2-1 loss to Panama influenced by a silly red card that saw the U.S. forced to ten men.

The loss in the second match of the group stage setup a must-win over Uruguay to ensure advancement to the knockout rounds of Copa America 2022. It didn’t go well, thus the USMNT missed out on passage to the quarterfinals.

‘This FIFA World Cup, with easier advancement due to only 16 teams being eliminated in the group stage is not the same,’ one may be now thinking.

Correct, a win over Australia is even more of a must-win.

Life advice…

“Put yourself in positions to succeed.”

Or, its corollary, “Don’t put yourself in difficult situations.”

The USMNT must defeat Australia to hopefully win Group D and face a 3^rd place team from either group B, E, F, I, or J. A win in the Round of 32 would likely mean the winner of Group G – likely Egypt or Belgium – two teams the U.S. Men’s National Team can beat in a Round of 16 matchup.

Luck (passage to the quarterfinals and beyond, in this case) doesn’t just happen, you create your own.

Criminal: Australia v Turkiye

Legend, okay, history, says Australia was where England sent their criminals. Not true. Okay, yah, true. But, it was Turkiye who was their own worst criminal in their 2-0 opening match loss to Australia on June 13^th.

Turkiye played like they knew they were the more talented side. ‘Talent doesn’t … (you know the rest),’ They threw numbers into the midfield thinking their talent would find avenues no matter how Australia defended. And Turkiye became their own worst enemy as the numbers and their lack of width made their ball movement predictable.

Any runs made (which there were not many) were easily tracked as Australia sat in a mid-block featuring a high line in front of their own eighteen. When Turkiye was able to move further down the field, Australia simply clogged the middle even more as Turkiye looked for the perfect shot that never came.

An early note of mine was that Turkiye mirrored the U.S. in their setup, with wingers up high and wide. I later scratched that to “somewhat wide”. Then, as desperation kicked in once Turkiye went down, the wingers narrowed, perhaps thinking ‘If I can get on the ball, I can end this nonsense.’

Full credit to Australia for their organization and earnest defending.

Even when Turkiye worked to the endline via width or individual ingenuity, things got wonky. The 52^nd minute saw a low ball played across the box… nobody home. Other endline products were either shots near post or balls easily cleared, not the most-dangerous 45-degree cut back where numbers yearned to be fed.

The Australian problem

As the match slipped away after Australia scored their second, whacking from distance reared its ugly head too often for a Turkiye squad that has the talent they do.

But Turkiye did not come into the match with World Cup experience. Their last appearance was in 2002. Australia made the Round of 16 in 2022 and have qualified for the last six FIFA World Cups. Experience matters.

The U.S. faced Australia back in October, a 2-1 win in Denver. But Friday will be a different beast. The good news – and there is plenty of it for the U.S. – is that neither Turkiye nor Australia possess the athleticism the Americans do.

The following are what the United States National Team must do to win come Friday:

• Counter press like they did against Paraguay. Australia plays pretty direct; the U.S. must pressure their backs/midfield to stop long balls.
• Move off the ball, especially when the ball goes wide (and stay wide, boys). Movement to create triangles and to also get behind was critical v Paraguay and will be critical to breaking down a block. Be thankful that Tim Ream (and others) can make insightful passes.
• Set pieces must be a strength. An important related note is that the clearances from Australia’s backs were not to safety, allowing Turkiye repeated attacks.
• Christian Pulisic (or whoever if he can’t go) and Antonee Robinson should attack, often, the right back (#4, Jacob Italiano), a weak 1v1 defender.
• Sergino Dest and Alex Freeman, along with Tyler Adams in the midfield and Chris Richards must track striker Nestory Irankunda, the ultra-fast strike who scored Australia’s first. The other striker, #9, Mohamed Toure is fast, too, but not as skilled. Yet, he will test Richards, Tim Ream, and Robinson. Cover, and again, counter-pressing will be key.
• Be patient: Drawing Australia out – like the 20+ pass sequence for Gio Reyna’s late goal – must be a clear tactic.
• Lastly, continue being aggressive and playing with joy.

The U.S. Men’s National Team has the guile and the will to overcome a valiant, dangerous, and World Cup-tested Australia side. Currently, the U.S. holds a one goal advantage in goal difference, thus a win over Australia puts the U.S. in a strong position to win the group going into the third match. The scenario the winner of Group D will find itself in is a less bumpy road than other group winners, thus Friday’s 2:00pm Central time match is a must-win.

Go forth boldly, young friends. Why not us?