Match Preview: Sporting KC Heads to Utah for a Basement Battle with Real Salt Lake

Let’s be honest with ourselves. The matchup Saturday night at America First Field is not a preview of the MLS Western Conference Final. It’s a bottom of the table scrap between two clubs who have forgotten how to win.

In one corner is Sporting Kansas City, a team that can score goals in bunches but can’t seem to stop anyone. In the other is Real Salt Lake, a team that passes the ball beautifully right up until it’s time to shoot.

It’s a battle of bruised egos and busted records. But for Sporting fans, there’s another layer: former captain and club legend Johnny Russell. Now wearing the claret and cobalt of RSL, Russell has already hurt his old club once this season, scoring on a header back in June. His presence turns a simple basement battle into something with more complicated feelings.

Two Teams in Freefall

To understand this game, you have to look past the standings, where Sporting sits 13th in the West with 27 points and RSL is just ahead in 11th with 31. You have to look at how they are struggling.

Sporting Kansas City (7-6-16) plays a chaotic brand of soccer. One week, they’re beating the Colorado Rapids 4-2 in a thriller. The next, they’re getting dismantled 5-2 in Seattle or 3-1 in Orlando. There has been very little middle ground this season, just thrilling highs and disastrous lows.

Real Salt Lake (9-4-14) is frustrating in a different way. They are organized, disciplined, and rarely get blown out. But their attack is anemic. They build up play with patience and precision, only for the final ball or shot to go missing.

Neither team comes into this game with any momentum. Both have managed just one win in their last five league matches, taking three points from a possible 15.

Compounding the issue for SKC is their form away from home. They’ve won just three times on the road all season against nine losses. And historically, Sandy, Utah has not been a kind place for them.

What the Numbers Say

The underlying data shows two teams failing in completely different ways.

For Sporting KC, the numbers are wild. They have scored 44 goals, but their Expected Goals (xG) is only 37.4. That suggests their finishing (aka Dejan Joveljić) has been exceptionally clinical; perhaps unsustainably so. Defensively, the numbers confirm what fans have seen all year. They have conceded 59 goals, and their xG Against of 61.3 is the worst in Major League Soccer. They give up far too many high-quality chances.

Real Salt Lake’s profile is the opposite. They’ve created chances worth 33.3 xG but have only scored 28 goals, leaving more than five goals on the table. Their attack simply isn’t clinical enough. Defensively, they’ve been unlucky. They’ve given up 36 goals, but their xG Against is 43.1, suggesting their goalkeeper, Rafael Cabral, has played exceptionally well to keep them in games.

This sets up a clear question: Will SKC’s finishing punish a wasteful RSL? Or will RSL’s methodical attack finally find its rhythm against the league’s most generous defense?

How They’ll Line Up

On the sidelines, RSL’s Pablo Mastroeni coaches a complex, possession-based system. RSL starts in a 4-2-3-1, but with the ball, it morphs into something like a 3-2-4-1 designed to create numerical advantages in the midfield and control the game’s tempo. It’s a sophisticated style that requires tactical discipline from every player.

For Sporting KC, interim head coach Kerry Zavagnin is trying to get the car back on the road, not reinvent it. Expect perhaps the familiar 4-3-3, built on an aggressive high press meant to force turnovers. Zavagnin has talked about wanting his team to be more aggressive and direct, a pragmatic shift to leverage the team’s main strength: its finishers.

Key Players

• Diego Luna (RSL): The 22-year-old All-Star is the engine of RSL’s attack. With eight goals, he drifts inside from the left wing to find pockets of space and create chances. Slowing him down will be critical for SKC’s midfield.
• Jake Davis (SKC): In a team often defined by its attacking firepower and defensive lapses, Jake Davis is the relentless engine that keeps everything running. The homegrown player’s work rate is immense, and his value comes from covering nearly every blade of grass on the pitch. His job isn’t just to win tackles, but to provide the constant pressure and energy the team’s system demands. Against an RSL side that wants to methodically pass its way up the field, Davis’s ability to disrupt their rhythm will be critical. He’ll be tasked with chasing down RSL’s creators and doing the dirty work that could give Sporting’s finishers the chances they need.
• Dejan Joveljić (SKC): Sporting needs someone who can create a goal out of nothing, and that’s Joveljić. The Serbian striker is a pure finisher who has already bagged 17 goals this season, significantly outperforming his xG of 12.9. He doesn’t need a perfect chance to score, and for a team as fragile as SKC, that kind of brilliance can be the difference.

Where the Game Will Be Decided

History is not on Sporting’s side. The club’s all-time record at RSL is a dismal 3-8-2. The thin mountain air has often been a factor, and SKC will need to manage its energy well.

The key battles will be in the middle of the field. RSL will try to use its fluid system to outnumber and pass around SKC. Sporting will try to use its press to disrupt that rhythm and create quick counter-attacks. It will be a test to see which team can impose its style of play.

Keep an eye on the duel between striker Dejan Joveljić and RSL center-back Justen Glad. Glad is an intelligent, veteran defender, but Joveljić is a master of finding that half yard of space he needs in the box.

Insider’s Watchlist

• Discipline: Both teams will be missing key players due to yellow card accumulation (Zorhan Bassong for SKC, DeAndre Yedlin for RSL). RSL also leads the league with five red cards. In a tense game between two frustrated teams, discipline could be a factor.
• The Set-Piece Mismatch: This part of the game presents a real chance for Sporting KC. Real Salt Lake has struggled on both sides of the ball on set pieces this season. Offensively, they’ve been inept, scoring the fewest goals from dead-ball situations in all of MLS with just three. That vulnerability extends to their own box, as they have consistently shown weakness in defending corners and free kicks. For a Sporting team looking for any advantage on the road, this presents an opening to steal a goal against the run of play.
• Altitude: Sandy, Utah, sits at 4,450 feet. The thin air is a real advantage for the home team, especially in the last 20 minutes. How SKC manages the final stages of the game will be crucial.

Prediction

This feels like a game both teams are desperate not to lose. RSL controls the ball but struggles to finish, while SKC’s road form and defensive issues will likely prevent them from taking control. A nervy, hard-fought stalemate seems the most likely result.

A 1-1 Draw.

And don’t be surprised if Johnny Russell is the one who finds the scoresheet. Facing his old club, in a city he called home for seven years, he will be the most motivated player on the field. The story is almost too perfect to ignore.