US hope v Bosnia-Herzegovina: Box it out

The U.S. Men’s National Team will face Bosnia-Herzegovina (BIH) Wednesday night in Santa Clara, California’s San Francisco Bay Area Stadium at 7:00pm Central Time in the Round of 32 in the 2026 FIFA World Cup.

Both Wales and Italy fell victim to BIH in the playoffs to qualify for the World Cup via penalty kick shootouts. That fact reveals much about the US’s opponent. One thing being don’t get into a PK shootout with Bosnia-Herzegovina.

Bosnia-Herzegovina is managed by Sergej Barbarez, a 6’ 2” former attacking midfielder, winger, and 2^nd striker whose career was highlighted by stints at Dortmund, Hamburger SV, and Bayer Leverkusen. Heading BIH for this World Cup has been his only managerial job. Somewhat ironically, the attack-minded player Barbarez is pragmatic as a manager.

Thus, only one goal allowed to both Qatar and Canada in group play, and only one until the wheels fell off after a DOGSO red card late in a 4-1 loss to Switzerland, plus those shootout defeats of Wales and Italy in qualification after allowing only one goal in regulation each time.

Bosnia-Herzegovina is physical and gutsy, and they play hard, and play direct (for the most part). Versus Switzerland and Canada, BIH lined up in a 4-4-2 that morphed into a 5-3-2 midblock without the ball. But that midblock is very disorganized. Gaps between the lines open when facing a patient, yet persistent attack that can move the ball in combination and with slightly more than average speed.

If the United States Men’s National Team can move quickly at the wings and quickly from wing to wing, gaps will open inside and BIH will be worn down. It is no secret that I find the US’s variety of wing play not only a joy to watch, but potentially devastating to any opponent they face. Christian Pulisic and Antonee Robinson with Folarin Balogun on the left and Sergino Dest, Alex Freeman, and Weston McKennie on the right is a one-two punch.

Switzerland found much joy down the left side against BIH, but the secret tactic is penetrating on the floor into BIH’s box. Although the backline stopped two sure goals for Canada with a clearance off the line and one due to good positioning, BIH often has difficulty clearing balls from their box that are not delivered in the air. Ball watching and failure to get the ball to safety are hallmarks. Against Switzerland, the backline was indecisive under pressure from ground entries in the box and off the ball movement. Combined with so many numbers against the ball, Bosnia and Herzegovina has trouble getting out of their own end. Stay on the ground and find success, but get into a rut of sending aerial crosses into the box, you play to BIH’s strength.

The attacking corollary is that Bosnia and Herzegovina is dangerous on set pieces and corners. A front post flick to the middle off a corner gave 6’3” #17, forward Jovo Lukic a can’t miss header against Canada. From the run of play, periodic standouts on the attack were #7, pacey midfielder Amar Memic, and #17, defender Amar Dedic who struck well from distance against Canada.

What does BIH look like on the attack? They lean somewhat on the left wing in approach, yet often lack numbers in attack out of their midblock. Numbers here tell much of the story as far as effectiveness. According to espn.com, these were the number of touches in the opponent’s box for each of Bosnia and Herzegovina’s group matches:

• v Switzerland — 8 for BIH to 35 for Switzerland
• v Canada — 15 to 37
• v Qatar — 20 to 16

In no match did BIH exceed an expected goals (xG) of one, even against group fodder Qatar, Bosnia and Herzegovina’s xG was 0.68.

Bosnia and Herzegovina is dangerous, like any team that has reached the Round of 32. Switch off, and they can hurt you. The keys to victory against BIH include avoiding a back-alley brawl (match their physicality but don’t get consumed by it) and avoiding a reliance on flighted crosses into the box. Box it out on your terms – on the floor and in the middle and wings of the ring, do not let BIH pull you into a rope a dope of physicality and hopeful crosses into their box. The ball movement characterized by precise balls from Tim Ream at left back and the triangular movement in behind defenses on the wings that the U.S. Men’s National Team has displayed will produce quality chances. Finishing them – a struggle in the 3-2 loss to Turkiye – will be the determining factor.