Sporting KC Faces 70 Percent Odds to Finish Last in MLS

The following is a guest post by Joseph Walsh.

After the Sunday night Hell Is Real Derby, nine MLS clubs remain mathematically capable of finishing the season in last place, with the chance to earn the Wooden Spoon. Sporting Kansas City has had the privilege of being the last among the 10 original clubs without this undesirable title. With the current results of this year’s campaign, Sporting KC are staring at the possibility of a last place finish.

Let’s take a look at the overall odds that this will happen and also look at their must win match against Austin FC.

To provide a clearer picture of the wooden-spoon race, a Monte Carlo¹ simulation was used utilizing the MLS standings after the October 18 matches. The remainder of the season was simulated one million times, with each matchup weighted according to the teams’ attacking and defensive performance, opponent strength, home-field advantage and league-average scoring rates.

A Poisson distribution² was used to generate a scoreline for every remaining match. That means the model accounted not only for wins, draws and losses, but also for goals scored, goals allowed and goal difference. After each simulated season, all 30 clubs were ranked together, and the team finishing last was recorded.

The results? The wooden-spoon race is overwhelmingly a two-team contest. Sporting KC finished last in 70.3% of one million simulated seasons, followed by CF Montréal at 29.6%, while every other MLS club combined accounted for barely 0.1% of the outcomes.

Why Sporting Kansas City vs. Austin FC Is a Must-Win

Sporting Kansas City enters the weekend three points behind Montréal. The two clubs are tied with six wins each, but Montréal holds a commanding advantage in goal differential. With time running out, this weekend could prove pivotal in determining who finishes at the bottom of the MLS table.

Using the same model as before, we can preview the results of both Sporting Kansas City vs Austin FC matchup and CF Montreal vs Nashville SC.

Out of these nine possible scenarios, it’s pretty clear this upcoming weekend game is close to a critical must-win to avoid the Wooden Spoon. While a loss does not mathematically seal Sporting’s fate, it makes the remaining schedule very difficult to dig themselves out of last place.

*rankings listed are current single table standings of each team as of end of day 10/18/2026.

Sporting Kansas City’s favorable remaining schedule provides a glimmer of hope, while CF Montréal faces a daunting run to close the season. Will Sporting escape the bottom of the table and keep its record of having never earned wooden spoon intact, or will 2026 mark the first wooden spoon in club history?

¹ Monte Carlo simulation: A Monte Carlo simulation estimates the likelihood of different outcomes by repeatedly running a model with randomly generated results, often thousands or millions of times. (like a coin flip, but weighted)

² Poisson distribution: A Poisson distribution estimates how often an event, such as a team scoring a goal, is likely to occur within a fixed period based on its expected rate.

Special Note: A Poisson distribution is still a Monte Carlo Model, kind of like not all hot tubs are Jacuzzis but all Jacuzzis are hot tubs. The same thing applies with the Poisson Distribution being a version of a Monte Carlo Model.

In this version, instead of applying just the win loss draw, along with the 3, 1 or 0 point value, it applies a score as well.

This is done using a team’s expected goals (xG) per 90. A team’s xG per 90 is weighted against the other teams xG per 90 to determine a point value rounded to a whole goal. It weighs a defensive team differently than an offensive team, balanced team etc.

The model applied a weight to each team based upon their expected goals, expected saves, offensive and defensive output, and home field advantage. When this model ran, it did not weigh the Vancouver Whitecaps and NYCFC at the same level of difficulty.