Will the KC Current Make the Playoffs?

Making the playoffs feels like a weirdly low bar. A little over a year ago, the Kansas City Current clinched their first NWSL Shield in club history. And they had plenty of games to spare. They’ll need every game this time around.

This year, they sit in 7th place, just two points ahead of the 9th place North Carolina Courage. Last weekend, for a few hours, they were below the line, until they pulled off a big 4-1 win over the Denver Summit to badly damage Denver’s playoff hopes.

The KC Soccer Journal and our various podcasts (For the Glory KC, Keeping Current, The Tea(L)) have spent much of the year discussing why the Current find themselves in this position. Today, let’s focus on how likely it is they make or miss the playoffs.

Where Things Stand Today

While Gotham find themselves with a comfortable lead, second through ninth is just a nine-point spread. The gap to a home playoff game – finishing in the top four – is only four points out of reach for the KC Current. One of those games is against fourth place Utah, but it’s in their house.

While not officially eliminated, the Denver Summit find themselves on 35 points with four games remaining. Sure, they could get to 47 points if they win all their games, but they are in a bind. However, we have to look at strength of schedule, where Denver has the second easiest path.

Who Has the Clearest Path?

When looking at the playoff chase, it’s important not to just look at the opponent, but to look at their home and away form. How many points per game (ppg) do they get at home and away? For example, the KC Current are the worst road team of all the teams in the playoff hunt. Kansas City are only better than the Chicago Stars (0.29 ppg away) and Racing Louisville (0.46 ppg away) in the entire league.

The teams that have KC on the schedule away from CPKC Stadium, may be more likely to pick up points. Knowing one of KC’s road games is against the Utah Royals also makes a home playoff game feel like a challenge to achieve.

Which is a shame, because Kansas City are the best team at home in the entire league. If they had been just a little better on the road this year and avoided brutal losses to teams like the Chicago Stars and Boston Legacy, their path through the playoffs would be much cleaner.

Venue PPG is a weighted average based on where a team plays their opponents. As you can see, the KC Current have the toughest remaining schedule of any team fighting for a playoff spot.

The KC Current’s Path

While Kansas City excel at home, one of their two home games is against the Washington Spirit, who have the best road record in the NWSL. That makes this Saturday’s game against Bay FC a must-win. One boon to KC’s playoff hopes is the Decision Day road game against Racing Louisville. The Kentucky side is bad on the road but a bit better at home (1.31 ppg). It’s a winnable game and will probably matter a great deal in the final standings.

So, Will They Make It?

We aren’t fortune tellers at the KC Soccer Journal. The KC Current have put themselves in a bind. They dropped so many points in games that they certainly want back. They have three road losses, that look particularly egregious in retrospective.

The weather greatly impacted that Chicago game, and Orlando has become a bit of a rival, so maybe it’s forgivable. But what is killing KC lately are home draws. Before they won two of their most recent three home games, they drew three of four before that (San Diego, Angel City and Seattle). Considering the Seattle Reign are atrocious on the road, those two dropped points really hurt.

Saturday will be key. Bay FC are bad on the road and the Current just stomped them in California. They really need all three points before they play some tough games against Utah and Washington. The KC Current don’t want to head into Decision Day needing a result. No matter how bad Louisville are, it’s a road game, where KC is even worse.

It’s hard not to think this is all self-inflicted. It didn’t have to be like this.