Match Preview: Depleted Sounders Host Struggling Sporting KC in a Test of Depth

On Sunday evening, Seattle Sounders FC and Sporting Kansas City will meet at Lumen Field in a match defined as much by who isn’t playing as who is. The two clubs find themselves at opposite ends of the Western Conference standings; the Sounders are sitting comfortably in 4th place with 41 points, while Sporting KC is struggling in 13th with just 24.

That 17-point gap tells us all about how the seasons have diverged for these two. Seattle overcame a poor start to re-establish themselves as a conference power, while Kansas City had a dreadful start and has been mired in a difficult rebuilding year. However, this match presents a challenge for each side, as both teams are entering hampered by injuries to important players, turning what looks like a mismatch on paper into a test of depth and adaptability.

The State of Sporting

Sporting Kansas City are entering this match having lost four of their last five. This season has been defined by the departure of long-time coach Peter Vermes and performances that have generated a statistical profile which highlights both individual brilliance and systemic disappointment.

The biggest story of SKC’s season was the firing of manager Peter Vermes after 15 years. For over a decade, the club’s identity was synonymous with Vermes’ high-pressing 4-3-3 system. Long-time assistant Kerry Zavagnin was appointed interim head coach and has taken a more pragmatic approach. He has experimented with different formations, most recently the 4-4-2, in an attempt to shore up a defense that has been leaking goals.

Zavagnin has emphasized “performance” and “competing” in his press conferences, signaling a back-to-the-basics approach for a team that has been lacking any sort of sustained run of success. But the shift in tactics seems to be taking its time to gel for a roster built to play Peter Vermes’ style of soccer, time that is quickly dwindling as the season nears its end. The continued defensive disorganization, which Zavagnin rightly noted after the loss to Orlando, shows a team struggling to find its footing still stuck between different philosophies.

While the team as a whole has struggled, Dejan Joveljić has been an exceptionally bright spot. With 14 goals in 24 games, placing him among the league’s top ten scorers, he has been the focal point of the SKC attack.

His success, however, papers over some concerning trends. Sporting has scored 37 goals from an Expected Goals (xG) total of just 31.8, an overperformance of more than five goals. This suggests the team just isn’t creating high-quality chances and is instead being propped up by the clinical finishing of Joveljić. Defensively, the numbers should be no surprise when compared to what fans have been seeing: the team has conceded 50 goals against an Expected Goals Against (xGA) of 52.2; they are consistently giving up good scoring opportunities.

This problem is about to get worse. Midfield creators Manu García (9 assists, T-6th in MLS) and Erik Thommy (8 goal involvements) are both likely out with injuries. Without them, the players responsible for providing service to Joveljić are gone, leaving their top scorer at risk of being isolated and lonely up top.

Scouting the Sounders

While Sporting has been in distress essentially all season, the Seattle Sounders have been on an upward trajectory. A sluggish start to the MLS season, perhaps a hangover from their ambitious Club World Cup campaign, was eventually corrected as coach Brian Schmetzer righted the ship. A historic mid-summer run saw the team score 29 goals in 11 matches.

Schmetzer’s tactical approach is highly pragmatic and highly effective. On paper, Seattle lines up in a 4-2-3-1, but their shape is fluid. They build patiently in possession, with right-back Álex Roldán pushing up the field to provide extra width. This allows his brother, Cristian Roldán, to drift inside from the wing to create overloads in the midfield. It’s an intelligent system that puts a lot of faith in the intelligence and quality of its players.

That system is now facing its biggest test of the season. The Sounders will be without a staggering number of their best attacking players:

• Jordan Morris: The club’s all-time leading scorer.
• Albert Rusnák: Their Designated Player playmaker and set-piece specialist.
• João Paulo: The central midfielder who controls the tempo of the game.
• Paul Arriola and Ryan Kent: Key attacking wingers.

The offensive burden now falls almost entirely on Jesús Ferreira. The major offseason signing from FC Dallas was supposed to be a key piece, but now he’ll have to be the primary creator and finisher. Ferreira has a history of playing well against Sporting, with eight goal contributions in 12 career games, and he scored when the teams last met in July. Cristian Roldan will also have to take on a much larger creative role, while young players like Obed Vargas will be tasked to step up in the midfield.

Key Matchups

The July 12th match, a 3-2 Seattle win at Children’s Mercy Park, offers a blueprint for this game. Seattle was clinical on the counter, racing to a 3-0 lead, while SKC dominated possession and shots (21 to 13) but could only score via two second-half penalties.

The Midfield Void: With both teams missing their preferred midfielders (García, Thommy, João Paulo, Rusnák), the game will be won by whichever side’s replacements can establish control. For SKC, midfielders like Nemanja Radoja and Jacob Bartlett must disrupt play and find Joveljić. For Seattle, Cristian Roldan and Obed Vargas need to connect the defense to the attack.

Joveljić vs. Seattle’s Center-Backs: Jackson Ragen and Yeimar Gómez Andrade form one of the league’s best defensive pairings. If they can keep Joveljić from finding space in open play, as they did in July, Sporting’s main threat will be neutralized.

The Penalty Box: This could be SKC’s best path to a goal. Seattle has been vulnerable on set pieces, conceding seven penalties this season (one of the highest in MLS). In the last meeting, they gave up two penalties. If Sporting can draw fouls and win corners, they can attack a potential area of weakness and keep Seattle on their toes.

Prediction

Sporting Kansas City is getting an excellent opportunity to steal a road result against a wounded opponent. The Seattle team they faced in July won’t be on the field.

However, Sporting is dealing with its own absentees. They are without the very players they’ve relied on much of the season to create chances for Joveljić, and their defense has been unreliable all season. Playing at Lumen Field is always a challenge, and if we were to boil this game down to a simple question, it would be: can a team with a fractured identity beat a team with a depleted but functional system?

Seattle, despite its injuries, has a core of veteran leaders like the Roldan brothers and Yeimar. They have a proven goal scorer in Jesús Ferreira and a coherent and well-executed tactical structure under Brian Schmetzer. That system and home-field advantage should be enough to see them through an otherwise tough match.

Prediction: Seattle Sounders 2 – 1 Sporting Kansas City