Sporting KC’s Ideal Lineup for the Rest of 2024 and the Open Cup

Sporting Kansas City have had a little time off. After an early exit from the 2024 edition of the Leagues Cup, Sporting KC haven’t played a game since the 4-0 shellacking at the hands of the Columbus Crew. The second such annihilation the team has suffered in Columbus this year.

That has given the team time to recover from injuries and time to reflect. When MLS play resumes this Saturday, SKC will have had 15 days between games, after playing six in a similar time frame earlier this summer. While there is no doubt Sporting KC will want to defeat Orlando City, the real focus should be on lifting a trophy with a pivotal US Open Cup match against USL Championship side Indy Eleven looming the following Tuesday.

Winning a cup is far more valuable than a single MLS game, which almost certainly won’t matter in the grand scheme of things. With just eight games to go in the MLS season, Sporting KC have to likely win at least seven of eight to sniff the playoffs. With every single opponent being above them in the standings, it seems unlikely they’ll win enough games, particularly with half of them being on the road and them having just two road wins all year.

All of that is to say, the priority is the US Open Cup and Sporting KC should put themselves in the best position to win their remaining two games, including a final that will be on the road at LAFC or the Seattle Sounders.

When it comes to what lineup they should play against Orlando, I don’t want them to run the best players into the ground knowing they have to play three days later. However, with over two weeks off between games, it’s likely an important tune up. The main thing is not playing everyone 90 minutes with a potential 120 minutes looming days later.

What is the Ideal Formation?

This season, Sporting KC have rolled out three formations. The tried and true 4-3-3, a new wrinkle in the 4-2-3-1 and a very late in the week implemented 3-4-3 in that first 4-0 Columbus loss. According to the match notes, which only account for MLS play, provided by the team, the 4-3-3 has been run 17 times and the 4-2-3-1 just eight times.

Of the eight times the 4-2-3-1 rolled out, Sporting KC list Alan Pulido as the starting #10 (attacking midfielder) seven times. Only one of those games, July 7th against FC Dallas, was a win. It is safe to say, Pulido is not a #10 and that should not be the plan, even against a lower division side.

The team just understands the 4-3-3 better, but there is another issue. Nemanja Radoja has been injured. He’s the only proper d-mid on the team and who knows what his availability is a week out. If he can play, run with the 4-3-3. If he can’t, it’ll probably almost need to be a 4-2-3-1, it just shouldn’t involve Pulido at attacking midfielder. It’s a wild thing to say that the highest paid player on the team really shouldn’t be on the field to start the game (or potentially at all depending how things go).

Update 8/21/24: Radoja won’t be available. I guess it’s the 4-2-3-1, but let’s keep Thommy at the 10, please. 

Talked with Vermes today. Radoja has sustained a groin injury and will be out for "a while." Everyone else is in a good place. Memo Rodriguez may be back either against Orlando or Indy. #SportingKC

— Daniel Sperry (@sperrydaniel94) August 20, 2024

Position by Position Breakdown

Let’s take a look at all 11 starting spots and see who is best fit to lineup at them. Almost like it’s the beginning of the season all over again. The team has rolled out something like 28 different lineups this year, so clearly, it’s hard to know what the best option is.

Goalkeeper

Tim Melia is the answer here. John Pulskamp may very well be the future, but he just had a demoralizing outing against Columbus and that could shake his confidence. Additionally, knockout games have the potential to go to penalty kicks and there is simply no one better in the league at stopping penalties than Melia.

Left Back

This is a bit up in the air. Tim Leibold has put in the most minutes here, 1,630, which is good for sixth on the team in league play. He can be a defensive liability at times, but he’s a nice asset going forward. He’ll probably start, but Logan Ndenbe has to be in the mix. He recently returned during the Leagues Cup from a season ending injury. He’s definitely not up to speed yet, but who knows how he’s progressed since the Leagues Cup exit. I wouldn’t be surprised to see him sub in, but it’s probably Leibold’s start.

Center Backs

Let’s go ahead and write Dany Rosero’s name in pen. He had a rough showing against Columbus, but most of the team did. It was his first full game back and I think he’s obviously the best CB on the roster, not counting the wildcard new signing.

Speaking of that signing, Joaquin Fernandez joined Sporting KC last week and throws a wrench into what we know about Peter Vermes’ preferences at central defense. Does Fernandez make such an impact that he’s the guy immediately? Perhaps. PV said he showed up in shape, but they are doing tests and a mini preseason to get him ready. If he plays against Orlando, that may be a good indication.

If it’s not Fernandez, Robi Voloder has his eyes on that spot for me. He’s grown a lot this year and Andreu Fontas is on his way out if you read the tea leaves. Something a lot of lower division teams have is the ability to sit and counter, which plays against Fontas’ strengths. It could be Castellanos, but I think it’s Voloder.

Right Back

The health of the midfield goes a long way towards this one. Jake Davis hasn’t started at right back since the Seattle Sounders game back on June 8th. Since then, he’s been needed in the midfield or away with the Olympic roster.

If Davis is needed in the midfield, Kayden Pierre seems to have a leg up. He’s started six times to Khiry Shelton’s two times in relief of Davis. I’ll lean Pierre as 2nd in line behind Davis, if that issue should arise.

Midfielders

I’m lumping all three of these spots together because of the uncertainty of Radoja. If he can play, he’s the #6 (defensive midfielder) and it’s all pretty easy. Put Erik Thommy and Remi Walter ahead of him and drop Davis to right back.

If he can’t play, then it’s chaos. It’s probably then a double pivot of Davis and Walter or perhaps even Memo Rodriguez and Walter, if Memo is healthy. Regardless, it should be Thommy in the more attacking midfielder spot, Remi likely deserves to start and from these its up in the air. I won’t completely rule out a double pivot of Rodriguez and Davis, which looked really good the lone time we saw it. But with Memo trying to return from injury, Walter almost certainly gets the start.

Update 8/21/2024: With the news from Daniel Sperry at the KC Star that Radoja isn’t’ available, the whole lineup shifts. Davis to the midfield (because it sounds like Memo won’t be ready to start) and Remi drops in next to him in the 4-2-3-1. That means Pierre is up at right back. 

Left Wing

Daniel Salloi, while a PV favorite, is as cold as ice. He’s scored just twice this year, with the last one coming back on May 11th against the Houston Dynamo. He hasn’t scored in his last 10 appearances and his expected goals (xG) for the entirety of 2024 is just the two goals he has. For an assist you have to go back to April 27th against Minnesota United.

Stephen Afrifa should start. He’s played a fraction of the minutes Salloi has played but has scored three times in league play, all since Daniel last scored. Afrifa is outperforming his 1.7 xG, but he’s gotten that in about a quarter of the minutes Salloi has put in. His per 90 xG is 0.64 to Salloi’s 0.11. Not shown in those numbers is the banger he scored against Toluca FC in Leagues Cup. He’s the hot hand, go with him. It’s not like you can’t just sub in Daniel if the situation calls for it, like protecting a lead.

Center Forward

This is simple. Pulido shouldn’t play, he’s been bad. Sure, Willy Agada is an inconsistent finisher, but he’s got nine goals in league play despite nearly 200 less minutes than Pulido, who has four. If Willy struggles, sub him out. Pulido is a CF, not a midfielder. But Agada is better right now and it’s not really close. He works harder, gets into more dangerous areas, and is near tops in the league in a lot of attacking stats on a per 90 basis.

Right Wing

On the right, Johnny Russell is probably the answer. He’s the captain. He’s a leader. And I think he may want a trophy more than anyone. He’s missed some time, but if he’s healthy, he’s an impact player. Plus, you can’t really pair the Afrifa and Vargas too much because they both don’t defend at the level of Russell and Salloi. On a per 90 basis, Vargas does have 0.37 goals to Russell 0.27, but Russell holds a slight advantage in assists (0.20 to 0.18). Neither is killing it, and I think it feels like nearly any of the forwards could/should get subbed out as necessary.

The Bench

In the US Open Cup, the roster is only 18 players deep and not 20, like in MLS league play. You have to have a backup keeper, which then leaves only six more players. With five subs still available to be made, you have to pick your bench wisely. Do you bring all three backup forwards (Pulido, Vargas and Salloi based on the above breakout)? Probably. Then you need a center back and at least one midfielder. Then you have to decide if you bring an extra fullback or another midfielder.

Selections: Pulskamp, Pulido, Salloi, Vargas, Rodriguez, Castellanos, Pierre, Shelton

I’d probably bring Fernandez over Casti if he’s ready and finding chemistry in his short time here based on his pedigree. I could see PV counting Pulido as a midfielder to solve that problem or bringing Khiry since he can play multiple spots in a pinch. I’d love to bring Logan, but if he’s not ready to play significant minutes, Pierre probably makes more sense. Imagine if Leibold went down right away and Logan had to play nearly 120 minutes straight off an injury. It could be bad.

Sporting KC play Indy Eleven on Tuesday, August 27th at Children’s Mercy Park. Kansas City have never failed to advance when they play at CMP in the US Open Cup. Both teams play Saturday night, with Indy having to travel to Las Vegas while KC play at home again. The winner plays the winner of LAFC versus the Seattle Sounders. If Sporting KC advance, they cannot host the final.

Update 8/21/2024: Something about taking Radoja out makes me far less confident in this lineup. That said, if a team full of MLS players can’t beat a USLC team, that’s not great. Atlanta United fell to them at home, so you never know. At least if they advance Radoja should be back for Seattle or LAFC.

Weigh In

What do you think SKC’s ideal lineup is?